South African National Defence Force (SANDF)- on verge of collapse- experts!

(South African Catholic)

Note by Marc Aupiais

According to the IOL (Independent Newspapers) news group- of South Africa- multiple experts on military matters- have warned that South Africa could handle only the most "minor" of Defence crisis.

Jane's Defence Weekly Southern Africa correspondent Helmoed-Romer Heitman, Henri Boshoff of the Institute of Security Studies in Pretoria, retired Brigadier-General George Kruys of the University of Pretoria, and Professor Renfrew Christie, dean of research at the University of the Western Cape have all raised serious concerns about the state of the South African Army.

It has been warned that if piracy moves south- that our navy is not capable of patrolling the Mozambique Channel to protect commercial shipping, that should Zimbabwe collapse- our army would not be capable of intervening, that taking the police off border patrol would be deadly- and that if events turn sour in Darfur- that it would be hard to evacuate our troops.

South African troops situated throughout Africa- have been credited with a deep stabilising influence- but soldiers are ageing, equipment is reportedly unserviceable, and funding is scarce- in comparison to the mammoth tasks demanded of South African soldiers in multiple giant frontiers throughout some of the most dangerous hot spots on the African Continent.

Defence Minister: Lindiwe Sisulu (appointed by the ANC [African National Congress]- ruling party) has expressed confidence in the readiness of the South African National Defence Force, according to IOL.

The Official Opposition of the Republic of South Africa, the DA (Democratic Alliance), disagrees with the Defence Minister. Their shadow Minister of Defence: Mr David Maynier claims that South Africa must take action least it experience: "soldiers without vehicles, ships without sailors, planes without pilots, and military hospitals without doctors".

A study a while back warned that a smaller deployment of South African troops Up North on the continent- could lead to dire consequences and destabilization. South African troops which were deployed in Burundi are credited with the stabilisation of the country, as South African diplomacy throughout the continent has been credited with ending wars.

The nay sayers seem to believe that either the army should be funded in a manner they would see as adequate: for its mammoth tasks- or that it should be used in what they would see as: more economically wise matters, or in a more economic manner.

C.F.

IOL (Secular; Independent; South African) 02 / 08 | August / 2009
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?&set_id=1&click_id=79&art_id=vn20090802062434798C127223

Gulf of Aden, Somalia, Africa: Theft of ships causing diversion of shipping from Suez to Cape of Good hope, by some big shipping groups

(Social Justice South Africa ; c.f. Reuters (Secular) 18/11/08; Reuters (Secular) 17/11/08; Associated Press 18/11/08; Sky News Channel (Secular) 19/11/08; Other Sources (Largely Secular) ??/??/??)

Article by Marc Aupiais

Reuters( 17/11/08; 18/11/08;) , the London based news Firm, is reporting the effect of the consistent hijacking of ships by pirates in Somalia- currently in a civil war. Unlike other News Services- they have said that there is no major move to the cape route (18/11/08). Ships, however, many carrying "dry cargo" or electronic equipment are being diverted from the quicker route of the Suez Canal, via the Gulf of Aden, having had, or noted of issues with Somalian Pirates: taking rather: the long route from before the Canal was created- around the Cape of Good Hope.

The Cape of Good Hope is located in Cape Town, in the Western Cape Province of the Republic of South Africa. Insurance costs of taking Suez are estimated by a source in shipping: quoted by above mentioned Reuters:  to be one probable reason, however major Middle Eastern Oil producing nations have not yet hinted at any diversion, despite the recent hijacking of a Middle Eastern oil carrier. A reason sited by a shipping company withdrawing: is the risk faced, not by companies, but by crews of ships. There is also disappointment in the lack of support from the authorities and governments: in combating the piracy: whether or not this disappointment is warranted will be seen in coming weeks.

The civil war in Somalia between their Warlord president and Islamic rebels, has resulted in the government controlling less than half of Somalia's territory, with Rebels now controlling what seems an ever-growing amount of ground. When two Catholic religious were captured as hostages in a raid, by terrorists in nearby northern Kenya, and brought back to Kenya's Neighboring Somalia, the Somalian Government, appears to have had to ask Kenyan help to try resolve the issue.

Reuters, which reported firstly on the diverting of shipping, appears to have done a more extensive analysis: via an interview of a shipping company not quoted as pulling out: one day later, which saw the issue as not a major factor. All sources noted some ships being redirected to avoid the Gulf of Aden.

The extend of the diversion: will be determined by how effective promised efforts by the European Union: to stifle the hijacking of ships in the Gulf of Aden will be.