Primaries- where presidents are made, before they are made. The Republican primary voters are facing a dilemma. Vote for the best candidate, or vote for the one you think Democrats and non-republicans may vote for.
The Republican primaries are being strongly fought- between Mitt Romney, controversially more Democrat than Republican, and a mormon (still demonised in mainstream American society), and his opponent: aka every other candidate. The Democrat media all say that Mitt could beat out Obama, by making the election a referendum on Obama. The other candidates would have to fight based on their actual policies, which shockingly are Republican.
The fact that Romney and the other candidates keep competing strongly, with one or other often polling much stronger than him. The sudden low turnouts at rallies he attends, and other factors, hint at a different equation.
Romney, seems to be so UN-Republican, rather than a made to fit candidate, that Mormon, not so pro-life, not so pro-marriage Romney, seems to have both angered and alienated the Republican base, and Tea Party grassroots.
It is rare if ever that someone is elected purely because they aren't someone else. Generally voters just don't appear at stations.
Republicans who want the election handed to them on Obama's unpopularity, have a distinct problem. If they don't have a candidate who is not only slightly different than Obama, but who is independently someone who inspires their own grassroots, they will land up having to run a likely disastrous and meek anti-Obama campaign, replacing the epic evil dictator with another evil dictator- that is- like with like.
Its much easier to win on a positive campaign than a negative one.
Its sort of cheating really, voting not for who you support but who you think can hand you an election. The sort of cheating which backfires, so alien to Democracy is it. Its not even Republican anymore. The only party that can save America right now: through austerity and good social; economic policies! Not Obama's closed minded denialism!